Canadian recreational property prices forecast to rise 4.7%

Recreational property in Canada saw healthy price gains leading up to the 2019 spring market, rising 5.0 per cent to $411,471 compared to the previous year.1 Royal LePage is forecasting another year of solid gains (4.7%) as high demand in Ontario and Quebec continue to put upward pressure on prices, offsetting softer market conditions in British Columbia. Low inventory in Ontario and weak demand in British Columbia were the primary drivers of a decline in Canadian recreational property sales (-8.3%).

In most of the country, young families are competing with baby boomers for homes in popular recreational property regions.

“With the youngest baby boomers a decade away from retirement, and their older peers well on their way, we are seeing robust demand for cottage, cabin and chalet-style retirement properties,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage.

“Young families have traditionally made up a significant portion of the demand for recreational property, as they look to create a special place for children to grow up,” Soper continued.  “Today they find themselves having to compete with their parents for that spot on the water, with boomers leveraging the significant equity from their existing urban homes. In Ontario and Quebec, this has resulted in exceptional demand and upward pressure on prices. In Western Canada, it has supported demand and stabilized prices.”

Both Ontario and Alberta saw greater aggregate price increases than other provinces, rising 7.2 and 10.2 per cent, respectively. Alberta’s increase was largely due to an 11.4 per cent pickup in the larger market of Canmore, with mostly healthy single digit gains elsewhere in the province.

Royal LePage forecasts the aggregate price of a single-family home in recreational regions in Canada to increase by 4.7 per cent by spring 2020, rising from $411,471 to $429,714.2

Most provinces witnessed a year-over-year decline in recreational property sales. While a lack of inventory to meet demand resulted in a sales decline in OntarioBritish Columbia’s sluggish sales mirrored trends in the province’s residential real estate market. The exception was Quebec, which experienced a 6.3 per cent year-over-year sales increase in single-family properties in reporting recreational communities as supply met demand.

Although sales are down 7.9 per cent among reporting recreational regions across Ontario, the aggregate price for a single-family home rose 7.2 per cent to $393,253 in the province. The reason most often cited by Royal LePage recreational property experts for the price increase is low inventory, as retirees compete with young families looking to get away from the city.

National and Regional Recreational Price Chart*

Region

2018 Single-

Family

Aggregate

Price

2019 Single-

Family

Aggregate

Price

2019/2018

Single-Family

Aggregate

Price (%)

2020 Single-

Family

Aggregate Price

Forecast

2020 Single-

Family

Aggregate Price

Forecast (%)

Atlantic Canada

$243,507

$257,965

5.9%

$259,671

0.7%

Quebec

$186,014

$194,315

4.5%

$205,148

5.6%

Ontario

$366,899

$393,253

7.2%

$424,905

8.0%

Prairies

$207,092

$194,147

-6.3%

$188,101

-3.1%

Alberta

$743,431

$819,583

10.2%

$838,881

2.4%

BC

$666,924

$669,601

0.4%

$681,142

1.7%

CANADA

$390,009

$411,471

5.0%

$429,714

4.7%

Region

2019

Waterfront

Median Price

2018

Single-
Family

Median

Price

2019

Single-

Family

Median

Price

2019/2018

Single-

Family

Median

Price (%)

2020

Median

Price

Forecast

2020

Median

Price

Forecast (%)

Atlantic Canada

Shediac

$300,000

$170,000

$200,000

17.6%

$200,000

0.0%

Halifax

$395,250

$280,000

$286,900

2.5%

$289,769

1.0%

Avalon Peninsula

$315,000

$300,000

$270,000

**

$267,300

**

Quebec

Matawinie

$215,000

$150,000

$160,000

6.7%

$168,000

5.0%

Montcalm

$162,500

$180,000

$182,500

1.4%

$200,750

10.0%

Les Pays d’en Haut

$335,000

$240,000

$250,000

4.2%

$260,000

4.0%

Laurentides (includes Mont-Tremblant)

$248,000

$200,000

$206,500

3.3%

$216,825

5.0%

Papineau

$200,000

$144,000

$150,600

4.6%

$158,130

5.0%

Memphrémagog

$426,250

$235,000

$260,000

10.6%

$262,600

1.0%

La Jacques-Cartier

$400,000

$271,000

$280,000

3.3%

$284,200

1.5%

Portneuf

$224,000

$171,250

$180,000

5.1%

$201,600

12.0%

Les Appalaches

$218,750

$114,000

$112,000

-1.8%

$113,120

1.0%

Argenteuil

$232,500

$165,000

$172,000

4.2%

$177,160

3.0%

Gaspésie

$116,500

$119,000

$120,000

0.8%

$132,000

10.0%

Antoine-Labelle

$170,000

$141,000

$148,500

5.3%

$152,955

3.0%

Ontario

Bruce Peninsula

$458,000

$262,000

$312,000

19.1%

$343,200

10.0%

Haliburton Highlands

$500,000

$230,000

$250,000

8.7%

$250,000

0.0%

Honey Harbour

$435,000

$188,000

$198,000

**

$204,930

**

Kawartha Lakes

$465,000

$347,000

$371,000

6.9%

$371,000

0.0%

East Kawarthas

$525,000

$345,000

$370,000

7.2%

$388,500

5.0%

Land O’ Lakes

$350,000

$230,000

$289,000

25.7%

$332,350

15.0%

Meaford, Thornbury & Collingwood

$1,040,000

$479,000

$530,000

10.6%

$675,750

27.5%

Muskoka

$700,000

$327,750

$350,000

6.8%

$385,000

10.0%

Orillia & South Muskoka

$784,000

$380,750

$412,000

8.2%

$416,120

1.0%

Parry Sound

$500,000

$300,000

$325,000

8.3%

$373,750

15.0%

Rideau Lake

$457,000

$254,000

$266,000

4.7%

$292,600

10.0%

St. Joseph Island & Lake Huron

**

$247,300

$285,500

15.4%

$282,645

-1.0%

Southwestern Ontario

$539,375

$445,670

$466,000

4.6%

$489,300

5.0%

Sudbury

$450,000

$275,000

$290,000

3.4%

$290,000

0.0%

The Prairies

Lac du Bonnet

$285,000

$300,000

$255,000

-15.0%

$242,250

-5.0%

Lake Manitoba

**

$179,000

$230,000

**

$232,300

**

Interlake District

$247,000

$170,000

$170,000

0.0%

$164,900

-3.0%

Christopher Lake, Emma Lake & Candle Lake

$425,000

$239,000

$211,000

-11.7%

$211,000

0.0%

Alberta

Canmore

$2,752,000

$835,000

$930,000

11.4%

$953,250

2.5%

Pigeon Lake

$526,000

$332,000

$345,000

3.9%

$362,250

5.0%

Jasper

$1,730,000

$623,000

$657,000

5.5%

$650,430

-1.0%

Pine Lake

$550,000

$575,000

$550,000

**

$555,500

**

Wabamun Lake and Lac St. Anne

$687,000

$249,500

$263,500

5.6%

$266,135

1.0%

British Columbia

North Okanagan

$1,355,000

$468,500

$489,500

4.5%

$489,500

0.0%

Central Okanagan

$1,225,000

$659,950

$640,000

-3.0%

$659,200

3.0%

100 Mile House

$430,000

$305,000

$322,500

5.7%

$338,625

5.0%

Comox Valley

$760,000

$477,000

$525,000

10.1%

$530,250

1.0%

Denman Island

$685,000

$399,669

$465,071

**

$465,071

**

Gulf Islands

$980,000

$475,000

$450,000

-5.3%

$436,500

-3.0%

Mount Washington

**

$175,000

$210,000

20.0%

$212,100

1.0%

Whistler

**

$2,400,563

$2,359,875

-1.7%

$2,359,875

0.0%

Sunshine Coast

$1,288,000

$640,000

$666,536

4.1%

$666,536

0.0%

Forecasted (2020) and actual (2018, 2019) values reflect a twelve month period ended March 31st. Sudbury is not included as a reporting region in the Ontario aggregate value.

** Data not available or sample size does not meet minimum threshold for year-over-year comparison

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